As of May 2026, HoReCa in Ukraine remains one of the most dynamic and difficult markets. This article focuses mainly on foodservice: restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, bars, fast food, bakeries, pastry shops, pizza, sushi, delivery, dark kitchens and snack formats.
The market is growing in money, not in guest traffic
According to Ukraine’s State Tax Service, the restaurant sector declared UAH 246.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up 21.7% year over year. The sector included more than 43,000 business entities across over 51,000 locations, while the national average check reached UAH 303.
However, nominal growth should not be read as full market recovery. Poster’s sample of venues that operated continuously in 2024-2025 showed revenue growth of only 6%, while visits fell by 8% and the average check rose by 17%. The market is receiving more money mainly through prices, not through more guests.
- UAH 246.7 billion in declared restaurant revenue in 2025
- +21.7% year over year in official data
- UAH 303 national average check
- +17% average check in Poster’s sample
- -8% visits in Poster’s sample
After 2022, the market became regionally uneven
Over the past 3-5 years, Ukrainian HoReCa has moved through several stages: post-COVID recovery, the 2022 shock, partial demand recovery in 2023, revenue growth through prices in 2024 and complex adaptation in 2025.
Demand is concentrated in relatively safer cities, tourist regions, western Ukraine, Kyiv and large regional centers. Internal migration has reshaped demand in Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Chernivtsi, Zakarpattia and Kyiv region.
Demand is more sensitive to value
HoReCa demand is moderately to highly elastic depending on the format. Mid-plus restaurants, bars, pastry shops, evening formats and occasion-led venues are most sensitive to price increases. Coffee shops, takeaway coffee, bakeries, fast food, pizza, sushi and affordable delivery remain less elastic.
This does not mean consumers reject eating out. They simply visit less often without a clear reason and judge more carefully what they pay for: portion, quality, service, atmosphere, speed and convenience.
- price and a fair sense of value
- taste, consistency and freshness
- speed of service
- location and route convenience
- atmosphere and visual appeal
- service and staff attentiveness
- delivery, takeaway and digital presence
A fragmented market, while strong chains reshape the top tier
The market remains highly fragmented and includes tens of thousands of small and mid-sized operators. In 2025, 13,373 new foodservice sole proprietors opened, while 10,645 closed. Net growth was only +2,728.
At the same time, the upper tier is concentrating around strong chains. According to Delo.ua and YouControl, Ukraine’s top 10 restaurant chains generated about UAH 28.4 billion in revenue in 2025. The largest by revenue include McDonald’s, KFC, Puzata Hata, Domino’s Pizza, Sushiya, Emily Resort, Yapiko, Svit Fresh, Salateira and SHOco.
Formats are expanding and the line between retail and HoReCa is blurring
The market is very diverse: classic restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, bakeries, pastry shops, fast food, pizza, sushi, bars, street food, dark kitchens, delivery, cafeterias, family restaurants, ethnic cuisine and local gastro formats.
One 2026 trend is format hybridization. Stores, bookstores, beauty salons, supermarkets and other spaces add coffee, snacks, desserts or food zones to increase dwell time and average check.
- store + cafe
- bookstore + coffee shop
- bakery + seating
- supermarket + food zone
- dark kitchen + pickup point
- ready-to-eat food + delivery
Consumers do not have one favorite venue, but a set of scenarios
Loyalty in HoReCa is mixed. For coffee, bakeries and local cafes it can be high if the venue is close to home or work. For mid-market restaurants, loyalty is lower: consumers like trying new places, especially under the influence of social media.
An active consumer usually has several habitual scenarios: 1-2 daily coffee shops, 2-4 venues for meetings, 2-3 delivery brands, 1-2 restaurants for special occasions and 1-2 fast food, pizza or sushi brands.
Communication: Google Maps, Instagram and TikTok now sell visits
For HoReCa, presence in Google Maps with current photos, menu, opening hours and reviews is critical. For visually driven products, Instagram and TikTok are no longer just image channels; they directly trigger visits and orders.
The most common promotion channels include Google Maps, Instagram, TikTok, Facebook for events and local communities, Telegram or Viber, websites and online menus, Glovo or Bolt Food, outdoor visibility near the location, recommendations, UGC, influencers and local partnerships.
Outlook for 2026-2028
Over the next 1-3 years, the market will likely keep growing nominally, but not necessarily by guest traffic. Visits will remain under pressure, and formats with clear value will be stronger: coffee, bakeries, pizza, sushi, fast food, fast casual, local bistros, delivery and strong locations.
Chains and franchises will strengthen their position through purchasing power, standards, marketing, analytics, finance and scaling. Small independent venues will face more pressure from food cost, rent, wages, energy risks, staff shortages and weak financial models.
- smaller menus and higher efficiency
- control of food cost, margin, write-offs and traffic
- clear value offers: combos, breakfasts, business lunches and sets
- owned delivery and pickup
- CRM, loyalty programs and repeat sales
- service standardization
- AI/POS analytics for demand and inventory management
Overall conclusion
As of May 2026, Ukraine’s HoReCa market is not collapsing, but it is becoming tougher, more expensive, more competitive and less tolerant of weak business models. Formal revenue growth hides declining traffic, rising average checks, higher costs and profitability pressure.
In the coming years, the winners will not be the venues that simply “cook well”, but those with clear positioning, financial control, a coherent value proposition, strong service, digital sales channels and the ability to adapt quickly to changing demand.